A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
