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So, which year are we in? An American leader, following an extended period of tacit encouragement, has ultimately stepped in to end an military campaign from Israel that has reduced extensive sections of a urban center in the region to ruins, causing many thousands dead and prompting worldwide anger.

The offensive has come after a sequence of strikes on Israel. Presently, responding to pressure from the White House, the prime minister of Israel, a conservative politician with a gift for appealing language and a strong feeling of Zionist historical purpose, has consented to a ceasefire.

Historical Parallels

The year is not present day, but 1982. The city is not present-day Gaza, but the Lebanese capital. The US leader is President Reagan, not the current administration.

We find many differences between what happened in the Lebanese nation more than four decades ago and recent developments in Gaza in the last 24 months. The Hamas raid of last year, which killed 1,200 and included numerous captured, bears little comparison with the somewhat modest efforts of the Palestinian leadership in the period prior to the Israeli incursion of the Lebanese nation.

Uncanny Similarities

Several similarities are remarkable. Reagan finally contacted the Israeli leader, informing him that the situation in the capital was "a disaster" and indicating the diplomatic ties between their countries could be seriously harmed if the violence persisted.

In 1982, comparable to present circumstances, the war played out in immediate coverage on global media. Hundreds correspondents entered the city to report on for the initial instance an Arab–Israeli war without media restrictions by the combatants.

Subsequent Developments

The events subsequent to the conversation from Reagan and the truce in Lebanon is revealing. The PLO, its groups and leaders were dispersed across thousands of miles and a multiple nations.

The US administration then removed US-led peacekeepers – a violation of the understanding with the Palestinian leader. Bashir Gemayel, the country's freshly appointed head of state and Israel's chosen ally, was assassinated by Damascus operatives.

Area-wide Shifts

Comparable developments occurred across the rest of the region. By the late seventies, the predominantly worldly and progressive ideas that had seemed to offer the promise of a different tomorrow in the regional countries previously were weakened.

The results of this became very clear, in short order

In various nations, the Israeli state and the America now confronted enemies who were significantly more unyielding, lethal and efficient than the leftists and independence advocates of previous times.

Global Approach

Among Western nations, the consequences of this were unexpected. Throughout the 1970s, western analysts and officials had tried to analyze what caused militant radicalism.

Subsequently, in the early 1980s, this ended. National figures in the United States, the UK and additional countries were ceased being concerned in "underlying reasons" of conflict.

Modern Parallels

Last week, sources suggest that today's officials communicated to Israeli counterparts that the country could not oppose international consensus and recognized Palestinian aspirations for a sovereign entity.

This also was an parallel of that earlier period. In the consequence of the military incursion of the neighboring country, earlier administration told the Israeli government that the power of its armed forces alone could not "establish enduring settlement" and recognized "proper claims of the Palestinian people."

However a internationally-backed comprehensive agreement intended to address those grievances stalled completely. Abroad, Palestinian leadership watched powerlessly.

International interest in the area diminished. Israel resisted any concessions. Subsequently, there was the first intifada, and the establishment of new resistance movements.

• The patterns of the past offer serious lessons for present-day diplomatic initiatives
• Lasting solutions require dealing with fundamental problems rather than brief halts
• Area politics continue to develop in complicated and frequently surprising ways