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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a resolute stance on the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing warnings of "serious consequences" in August should Russia's president carried on obstructing truce negotiations, the former president finally enacted considerable penalties on Russia's two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously affected Putin's capability to finance his war effort in the region.

Yet, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, which was developed by American and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or European involvement, the former president has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Invasion

This plan would in practice benefit the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while putting Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Although bold proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative in reality undermine that essential autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his real-estate background, Trump seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere land disagreement, implying ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian land will appease the president. But, Putin's military campaign is not only about occupying a destroyed region of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's apparent desire to destroy it so it stops serves as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule denies them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in status the already divided regions of these areas, Trump's initiative would force the nation to give up the whole this eastern territory. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a ten years of conflict, this concession would make Ukraine's defensive positions critically compromised.

The area is the place of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified protective structures that are a critical barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, leaving Russian forces a clear way to the capital in case he later decide to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Additionally, in a step that would make future fighting more feasible for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the initiative places no such constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected administration as extremists, the plan states: "Any Nazi doctrine and actions must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to highlight this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no obligation that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

To be sure, the proposal has Russia pledge not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in law its stance of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken similar agreements in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a handback of seized land in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community have confidence in Putin this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western security guarantees. While the initiative promises a "strong joint military response" should the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the details include vague to concerning. The proposal would not just block Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude member states from deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the security presence, reportedly led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from restoring his diminished forces, restocking, and attacking again.

World Response

A separate supplementary accord reportedly would offer the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any subsequent "serious, planned, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. However different from a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable defense against renewed hostilities – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the dedication of alliance members, including Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not