Everyday Homicides in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The mean number of per-day murders each month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh official figures. However, security experts have advised that murder numbers could fail to point to better national safety.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This information was shared by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these past months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that last month the least amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over 4x greater than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her national security approach for an seemingly more pronounced drop in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety researchers cautioned that relying on murder numbers to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is especially true in light of the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for estimating the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the will to properly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it may obscure days when there were especially high numbers of murders.

“Using the daily average makes spikes of violence less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

But despite these measures, Mexico remains plagued by high bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and throughout the country to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to construct a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s highly debatable,” Vargas remarked.