From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Within the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.
The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.
A Nation Left in Limbo
Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy RodrĂguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner MarĂa Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms RodrĂguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.
He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.
Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage more reckless actions.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.
Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.
We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may regret it if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.