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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

But the latest competition is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and recent underperformers improving together. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still