Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.