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Volodymyr Zelenskyy, although leading his country during a conflict, is simultaneously chasing a dream for peace: securing EU accession for Ukraine swiftly.

The tireless leader is ramping up pressure on European Union member states to accelerate the protracted membership process. He portrays the national struggle of his people as a battle "to secure the nation's future, the future of Ukraine within the EU."

This aspiration of 40 million Ukrainians gaining European status is, theoretically, endorsed by the bloc itself. Nowadays, no meeting in the EU capital concludes without the country's inclusion being referred to as a "geopolitical necessity."

Such language portrays Ukraine's existence and Europe's long-term safety as two sides of the same coin. However, for a long time following the year 2004 "big bang" that admitted ten former Soviet countries, there was zero desire for new members, especially not the large eastern nation. Putin's tanks changed the situation entirely – within a short time of the unlawful 2022 invasion, Kyiv had applied for, and received, "official candidate" standing. A later, EU leaders took the historic step to open accession talks with a country at war, although without a specific deadline. Adjacent the Republic of Moldova, the former Soviet state feared to be next in the Kremlin's sights, vaulted to the top of the queue together with its neighbor.

Last week, the European Commission published its official assessment of the progress of 10 aspiring countries, and ranked both nations within the four frontrunners, alongside two Balkan states. The EU foreign policy chief said it was a realistic goal that this quartet might each be in the EU by the year 2030.

The country's positive verdict is objectively impressive. Russian missile attacks are devastating its power infrastructure nightly, its exchequer is nearly depleted and millions of its citizens are refugees, figuratively camped out elsewhere of the continent. Its negotiators are frequently literally in shelters. However, in Brussels, officials are upbeat about the massive modernization effort being undertaken in the capital even with continued worries about graft. Information of an alleged corruption case at Ukraine's national energy operator continue to surface. Even so, they say, negotiations could be finalized by the end of 2028. Negotiations with small Montenegro and Albania could be concluded by 2026 and 2027, in that order.

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A Reality Check

There is a sobering reality gap: the European Commission does not determine who gets in. The 27 current member states hold that power, and they must vote unanimously through every stage. And, currently, the Union's notorious leader Hungary's prime minister is blocking the official start of negotiations with Ukraine. And because its neighbor is bundled with the larger nation, it too is stuck.

Attention are on elections in the central European country in April, could unseat the long-serving leader. Yet some EU governments with domestic electoral concerns may be sheltering using Hungary. With nationalist parties gaining strength in major European nations and currently in power in other countries, the overall context for Ukraine's accession is challenging.

Analysts point out a gap between rhetorical support and real desires. "I am not convinced that a lot of nations in the EU truly desire Ukraine to be a member state, for different reasons," states one close observer of the accession procedure. "Yet it is a tragedy: because the EU would win the lottery by admitting Ukraine."

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What Are the Roadblocks?

The strategic case for accepting the country may be even more urgent considering the Kremlin's "hybrid war" on Europe, but considering its size and intricacy, so are the political and budgetary obstacles. Once negotiations are finished, approval by each of the 27 member states – several require referendums – is legally necessary for any new member. And while popular approval for the nation's entry is undoubtedly strong in Sweden, Finland and Denmark, 41% throughout the EU reject it.

Radical right political groups are gaining ground and some of them are strongly Eurosceptic and anti-enlargement. With Marine Le Pen's nationalist National Rally plausibly aiming for power in France in 2027, a public vote in France on the candidate's accession would be a difficult battle. Within pro-expansion states, there is trepidation about the costs involved, given Ukraine's relative poverty and immense reconstruction needs. A contentious dispute over whether to seize €140bn of frozen Moscow's funds to rescue the nation before it exhausts its funds in March is ongoing. Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, in contrast, worry that their farming economies will be harmed if Ukraine, a huge farming nation and competitor, gains access for farm subsidies.

Expansion in general, it is feared, could destabilise rather than consolidating the Union, until internal reforms are beforehand carried out to prevent paralysis in a union of 30-something nations. However such reform could take a long time.

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Hearts, Minds and Security Concerns

Representatives in the EU capital may have creative workarounds to the Hungarian leader's veto such as "front-loading", where negotiations could begin unofficially until Hungary's opposition is lifted.

There is talk, also, of writing strict new regulatory safeguards and lengthy probationary phases into new membership agreements to appease sceptics. Nobody wants new members that formally seem to uphold the rule of law, but who prove to be "internal threats" for the bloc.

Public relations efforts and "messaging" to win the support of citizens in all the existing member states and the candidate nations are in development. It is evident, though, that raising expectations and then leaving millions in uncertainty for too long poses dangers. As the Moldova's leader, the pro-European president, who in September defeated Russian interference to achieve a impressive pro-European electoral win, cautions last week: "If we fail to deliver in the next three years … then what will be the message to the citizens?"

The Ukrainian president used an exclusive discussion to stress the risks of Moscow going to war against another European nation before the current conflict concludes. He also emphasized the nation's strength at a critical moment, and his love for his fellow Ukrainians. "I believe that